SCC Preview: Goody's Cool Orange 500

When compiling our lineups in fantasy racing, past finishes for drivers at a particular track often can serve as a fine guideline for picking who will perform well. This week, however, as the Cup series returns from a week off, it's actually dangerous to look back on the history of results at Martinsville Speedway.

Hendrick Motorsports superstars Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon have dominated at Martinsville, winning eight of the past 10 races, and Johnson has won the past three. Yet I simply can't recommend using either one this week, as both have been the biggest disappointments in fantasy racing so far this season, and they aren't getting back into my lineup until they start living up to expectations and pricing again. Johnson at 23.3 and Gordon at 23.5 are the two most expensive drivers in the Stock Car Challenge, and they just aren't worth it right now.

Johnson and Gordon sit 13th and 14th, respectively, in the Cup standings. They have combined for 11 wins at Martinsville (Gordon has seven), and both of them have finished in the Top 10 in every race since 2003. They have both finished in the Top 5 in the past five races at the site. They also have led 62 percent of the total laps in the past three Martinsville races. There are more gaudy numbers that could take up a lot more space. Yet Johnson has only one top-10 finish so far this season, and Gordon has two. So I now move on and begin recommending drivers for the non-Johnson/Gordon SCC lineup.

Victory Lane special

Kyle Busch (22.6): A power-steering problem led to a 17th-place finish for Busch at Bristol, and he has not finished in the Top 10 in two of the past three races. Busch has finished fourth in the past two Martinsville races, and he has four top-10 finishes and three top-5 showings in six starts at the site. He led for 106 laps in last year's second race there. Let's remember these numbers were compiled before he came to Joe Gibbs Racing. In his past six races at Martinsville, Busch has an average running position of 10.9, fourth-best among active drivers. He has spent 2,227 laps in the Top 15, 80.7 percent during that span. He also ranks second with 161 quality passes, second-best in the field. NASCAR defines quality passes as passes of cars in the Top 15 while under green-flag conditions.

Primary picks

Tony Stewart (22.5): Stewart led for 267 laps at Bristol and very well may have won the race if Kevin Harvick hadn't made contact with him, dooming Stewart to a 14th-place finish. He has yet to win this season, but Stewart finished second at Atlanta in the fourth race and would have matched at least that showing at Bristol if not for the mishap. Stewart has won twice at Bristol, including the first race of 2006 at the site. He has 10 top-10 finishes at Martinsville in 18 starts, and has finished seventh or better in four of the past five races there. In the past six Martinsville races, Stewart has a series-best average running position of 5.9, and he also leads in laps in the Top 15 during that span, with 2,799, or 89.8 percent. He has 287 of the fastest laps run in the past six Martinsville races, third-best among current drivers.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (22.2): I didn't say you should avoid every Hendrick driver. Just Johnson, Gordon and Casey Mears for now. Earnhardt has finished ninth or better in four of five races in 2008, and he has three top-5 finishes so far. Look for him to push for his first win under the HMS banner this week. Earnhardt has finished second, third and fifth in his past three races. He has never won at Martinsville, but that was with DEI, where he still managed seven top-5 finishes in 16 starts, including a fifth-place showing in the first race of 2007. In the past six Martinsville races, he leads all drivers with 304 green-flag passes and 166 quality passes. He also ranks fourth during that span with 205 of the fastest laps run.

Denny Hamlin (21.4): Hamlin finished sixth at Bristol, and has earned two top-10 finishes in his past three races, so there are clear signs he is ready to break out after an inconsistent start to the season overall. Martinsville is an ideal venue for Hamlin to earn his first top-5 finish of the 2008 season. He has four top-10 finishes and two-top-5 showings in five Martinsville starts, and has finished second, third and sixth in his past three races at the site. He also took the pole in the first race there last year and led for 125 laps. The only time Hamlin did not finish in the Top 10 at Martinsville was when he wrecked in the first race of 2006.

Secondary standouts

Ryan Newman (19.6): Newman has progressively declined since winning at Daytona, and he finished 33rd at Bristol. Yet he has finished in the Top 15 in four of five races so far in 2008, with two top-10 finishes, and I'm looking for a rebound outing at Martinsville. Newman has six top-10 finishes and five top-5 outings in 12 Martinsville races. He finished second in the second race there in 2007. In the past six races at the site, he has 97 quality passes and an average running position of 14.7, which he can improve this week.

Juan Pablo Montoya (18.3): He doesn't have a top-10 finish yet this year, but he has been "trending in the right direction," as the Talented Mr. Roto might say. In his past four races, Montoya has finished 20th, 19th, 16th and 15th, and he slowly seems to be easing toward some top-10 outings. Last season, he finished 16th in his Martinsville debut. He followed that up with an eighth-place finish in 2007's second race at the site. Now is the time to add Montoya and look for stronger finishes in the near future.

Scott Riggs (14.0): I deemed Riggs a sleeper at Bristol, and he finished 22nd, which is not bad at all in this price range. He has finished 21st or better in four of five races so far in 2008, and I'm looking for his best finish of the year to this point at Martinsville. He has an average finish of 20.4 at the site, but what really should appeal to you is the fact that he finished eighth and 16th in his two Martinsville races in 2007.

Pit points

Jeff Burton (22.9) has 13 top-10 finishes in 27 Martinsville starts. … Clint Bowyer (21.2) has finished 11th and ninth in his past two Martinsville races. … Greg Biffle (22.0) finished seventh in the second Martinsville race last year, his first top-10 finish at the site. … David Reutimann (13.8) takes over the No. 44 car this week, and he finished 17th in the second Martinsville race last season. … Michael McDowell (11.8) moves into the No. 00 car, but you should avoid a guy who has raced only three times in the Nationwide Series and once in the Truck series.

The Engel five

Kyle Busch (locked at 22.8): If he doesn't win this week, I expect him to finish in the top three.

Tony Stewart (22.5): He's due for his first win, and can still put JGR in Victory Lane if Busch doesn't.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (22.2): At best, maybe he wins. At worst, he finishes in the Top 10.

Juan Pablo Montoya (18.3): He's also on my FSR team, so he'll feel the pressure this week.

Scott Riggs (13.8): I actually have him on my roster for two consecutive weeks. At least I likely can get a top-25 finish from him for the price tag.

Scott Engel covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can contact Scott here.